PAYMENTS

What Stripe Dunning Misses in 2025 (And How to Recover More)

Everything you need to know about Stripe's dunning
May 21, 2025
The Bottom Line: Stripe's dunning feels like autopilot for your revenue recovery. But if you're past $1M ARR and still flying on basic settings, you're watching 4-6 figures of recoverable revenue vanish into thin air every year. It's like using a Swiss Army knife when you need a precision instrument: great for most jobs, but specialized tools unlock specialized results.

The $103,000 Revelation

Picture Sarah, a VP of Growth at a $10m ARR SaaS company. She's grabbed her usual Wednesday morning coffee, opened her churn dashboard, and nearly choked on her first sip.

$103,000 in monthly recurring revenue. Gone. Vanished. Not because customers hated the product or found a competitor. Because their credit cards failed.

Her CFO's voice echoes in her head from last week's board meeting: "I thought Stripe handled all that automatically? Isn't that what we pay them for?"

That's the moment Sarah realized she'd outgrown her current tools. A classic scaling challenge that every successful SaaS eventually faces.

The Recovery Gap SaaS Teams Miss

Here's the thing about Stripe's dunning system, it's like having a solid home cook in your kitchen. They'll consistently deliver quality meals that satisfy most needs. But when you're scaling to serve hundreds of guests with specific dietary requirements, you need a chef who specializes in that exact challenge.

Stripe's Smart Retries launched in 2019 with all the fanfare of a revolutionary breakthrough. And for a moment, it felt magical. Failed payment? Poof! Stripe would retry it. Problem solved, right?

Not quite.

This evolution story plays out across every part of your SaaS stack. Customer support, analytics, marketing automation. They all started simple and became sophisticated as you scaled. Payment recovery is simply the next frontier in that natural progression.

The Tale of Two Recovery Strategies

Let me tell you about two companies, both hitting $15M ARR, both dealing with the same payment failure reality.

Company A used Stripe's default dunning. They treated it like a thermostat. Set it once and forget it. Their recovery rate? A respectable 35%. Not bad, not great.

Company B took a different path. They built their recovery like a Swiss watch. Precise, coordinated, relentless. Multiple channels, smart timing, customer-specific approaches.

Six months later, Company B was recovering 47% of failed payments.

The difference? $176,000 in annual revenue that Company A was still watching disappear.

Same market. Same customers. Same credit card failure rates. The only difference was treating recovery like the revenue-critical operation it actually is.

What Stripe Actually Gives You (And What It Doesn't)

Think of Stripe's dunning as a reliable Toyota Camry (and that's actually high praise as I drive one myself). It's dependable, efficient, and perfect for daily driving. But when you're ready to compete in the F1 of revenue recovery, you need a car built specifically for that track.

The Toyota Camry Features:

  • Retry logic that looks at error codes and works consistently
  • Email notifications that actually send
  • Seamless integration (because it's already Stripe)
  • Simple analytics that tell you the basics

What Becomes Possible (The F1 Upgrades):

  • Multi-channel – Recover customers everywhere they are
  • In-app notifications – That gentle nudge where they're already engaged
  • In-app lockouts – Block access and force a card update 
  • Optimized emails – Made to convert and are respectful of your brand 
  • Card update - No-login forms to update cards
  • Multi-payment – 1-click Google/Apple pay update pages
  • SMS alerts – One of the highest engaged touchpoints 

Your Camry gets you to the track. The F1 setup? That's how you win the championship.

The Customer Experience Time Warp

Here's where the opportunity gets interesting. Your customers have evolved rapidly since 2019, and so have the tools available to serve them better.

When Netflix needs to update their payment info, what happens? A smooth, mobile-optimized experience with Apple Pay integration and helpful timing. When Spotify has a payment hiccup? A friendly push notification that doesn't feel like collections.

When your SaaS has a payment failure? "Payment Failed. Click here to update."

It's functional, but there's so much room to craft something more optimized for conversion. 

There's an opportunity to elevate your customer experience from functional to delightful. Matching the Netflix-level service they're accustomed to everywhere else.

The Leaky Revenue Bucket

Every subscription company has the same fundamental challenge: you're filling a bucket that has holes in it. New customers flow in the top, lost customers drain out the bottom.

Most subscription leaders obsess over the inflow. More leads, better conversion, faster growth. But here's the secret that separates the winners from the "almost made it" stories: the winners plug the holes.

Involuntary churn is the sneakiest hole of all. It's not dramatic like a competitor stealing customers or obvious like a product failure. It's just... leak, leak, leak. A thousand tiny revenue cuts that slowly bleed you dry.

Sarah's company was losing $103,000 MRR to failed payments. That's over $1 million ARR just evaporating. 

The math stings:

  • $10M ARR company
  • Stripe recovers 34% 
  • $815k in annual revenue walking out the door

Pushing that to 45% recovers $136,000 annually. But what if each saved customer stays for just 3 more billing cycles? That’s $408,000 recovered. 

That's multiple senior developer's salary. Or a marketing budget. Or just... money that should be in your bank account instead of vanishing into the payment failure void.

The Sophisticated Competitor Playbook

While you're running the fundamentals with email recovery, your more sophisticated competitors are orchestrating multi-dimensional campaigns that meet customers wherever they are.

They've figured out that recovery is not a one-size-fits-all operation. It's a carefully orchestrated dance of timing, channels, and psychology.

Their secret moves:

The Multi-Channel Orchestra – SMS for immediate alerts, email for detailed instructions, in-app for seamless updates, no-login card update pages, lockouts to prevent free-loaders, push notifications for mobile users. They meet customers where they are.

The Timing Maestro – AI-tuned retry attempts based on decline codes, customer behavior, and historical success rates. No more random hoping.

The Experience Designer – Mobile-first or in-app update flows, one-click Apple/Google Pay integration, progress indicators that reduce anxiety. They make fixing payment failures feel like using a modern app, not filing taxes.

This isn't theoretical. This is happening right now, by your competitors, in your market.

When to Stick with Stripe (And When to Level Up)

Stripe's dunning isn't bad, it's foundational. Like using the default settings on a powerful camera, you'll get good shots, but custom settings unlock the full potential.

Stay with Stripe if:

  • You're under $1M ARR (focus on growth and PMF, not optimization)
  • Involuntary churn is under 2% (if it ain't broke...)
  • You have zero ops bandwidth (fair enough)

Upgrade if:

  • You're over $1M ARR (the math starts working)
  • You’re post PMF
  • Involuntary churn exceeds 2.5% (Houston, we have a problem)
  • You use multiple payment methods (complexity requires sophistication)
  • You want to actually win (not just survive)

The Real Cost of "Good Enough"

Here's what excites me about the current state of SaaS payment recovery: most companies have built solid foundations with tools like Stripe, and now they're ready to unlock the next level of performance.

You wouldn't accept "good enough" customer support. You wouldn't accept "good enough" product development. You wouldn't accept "good enough" security.

So why are you accepting "good enough" revenue recovery?

Every failed payment is a customer at a crossroads. They can either seamlessly update their information and continue their journey with you, or they can hit friction, get frustrated, and disappear forever.

Your Next Move

Stripe's dunning isn't broken. You've just outgrown the basics.

Just like you evolved from basic email to Zendesk/Intercom, and from Google Analytics to Amplitude/Mixpanel, payment recovery has specialized tools designed for scale.

The tools available now versus five years ago? Night and day. Time to level up.

The revenue you're leaving on the table isn't theoretical. It's sitting in your payment failure reports right now, hiding in that orange bar, waiting for you to do something about it.

The question isn't whether you can afford to upgrade your recovery strategy.

The question is whether you can afford not to.

Want to see exactly how much revenue you're leaving behind? We can audit your payment failure data and show you what's possible; no sales pitch required, just the numbers that matter.

AUTHOR
Philip Pages
CEO, Redux Payments

Stop losing money to credit card failures

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